I am trying to remind myself that everyone, myself included, operates on a complex set of ideas, narratives, and beliefs that are sometimes coherent, but often conflicting. When I view my own beliefs, I am tempted to think of myself as rational and realistic. When I think of others who I disagree with, I am … Continue reading Competing Biases
Overcoming group overconfidence is hard, but in Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman offers one partial remedy: a premortem. As opposed to a postmortem, and analysis of why a project failed, a premortem looks at why a program might fail before it has started. Group communication is difficult. When the leader of a group … Continue reading Overcoming Group Overconfidence
Are you pretty confident that your diet is a healthy option for your? Are you confident in the outcome of your upcoming job interview? And how confident are you that you will have enough saved for retirement? Whatever your level of confidence, you might want to reconsider whether you should be as confident as you … Continue reading Should You Be So Confident?
How much should you trust your intuitions? The answer to the question depends on your level of expertise with the area in which you have intuitions. If you cook with a certain pan on a stove every day, then you are probably pretty good with trusting your intuition for where the temperature should be set, … Continue reading Overconfidence
Yesterday I wrote about the distinction between true appreciation and real compliments to people's hard work versus empty flattery. Today's post continues on that theme. In his book How to Win Friends and Influence People, Dale Carnegie continues his thoughts on flattery writing, "That's all flattery is – cheap praise. I once read a definition … Continue reading More On Flattery
Self-awareness is something I have been trying to practice for several years and recently I have been thinking about it a little differently as I have recognized just how hard it is to be aware of ones actions, desires, and honest thoughts. Our lives are so busy that it is hard to look objectively at … Continue reading Improvement and Self-Awareness