How We Chose to Measure Risk

How We Chose to Measure Risk

Risk is a tricky thing to think about, and how we chose to measure and communicate risk can make it even more challenging to comprehend. Our brains like to categorize things, and categorization is easiest when the categories are binary or represent three or fewer distinct possibilities. Once you start adding options and different possible … Continue reading How We Chose to Measure Risk

Probability Judgments

Probability Judgments

Julia Marcus, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School, was on a recent episode of the Ezra Klein show to discuss thinking about personal risk during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Klein and Marcus talked about the ways in which the United States Government has failed to help provide people with structures for thinking about risk, and how … Continue reading Probability Judgments

The End is Always Near

The End is Always Near

The human mind thinks in narratives. Well take in information about the world around us, and we create a story that weaves all of those narratives together in a cohesive manner. The mind creates the reality that it experiences, and it uses narrative to give the story meaning. Unfortunately, sometimes the stories don't fit the … Continue reading The End is Always Near

Buying Insurance

We Don’t Buy Insurance for Ourselves

Why do we buy insurance of any kind? Is it really for ourselves and our own benefit, or is there something else going on with insurance decisions? According to Venture Capitalist Chris Brookfield, as quoted in Dave Chase's book The Opioid Crisis Wake-Up Call, there is something beyond our own self interest at play when we … Continue reading We Don’t Buy Insurance for Ourselves

Risk

Joel Achenbach explored what went wrong on the Deep Water Horizon oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico the night it exploded and left an open gusher at the bottom of the ocean. He found that there was never one major mistake or any serious oversight that catastrophically caused the collapse of the system and … Continue reading Risk