A Bias Toward Complexity

A Bias Toward Complexity

When making predictions or decisions in the real world where there are many variables, high levels of uncertainty, and numerous alternative options to chose from, using a simple rule of thumb can be better than developing complex models for predictions. The intuitive sense is that the more complex our model the more accurately it will … Continue reading A Bias Toward Complexity

A mixture of Risks

A Mixture of Risks

In the book Risk Savvy, Gerd Gigerenzer explains the challenges we have with thinking statistically and how these difficulties can lead to poor decision-making. Humans have trouble holding lots of complex and conflicting information. We don't do well with decisions involving risk and decisions where we cannot possibly know all the relevant information necessary for … Continue reading A Mixture of Risks

intelligence - Joe Abittan

Intelligence

"Intelligence is not an abstract number such as an IQ, but similar to a carpenter’s tacit knowledge about using appropriate tools," writes Gerd Gigerenzer in his book Risk Savvy. "This is why the modern science of intelligence studies the adaptive toolbox that individuals, organizations, and cultures have at their disposal; that is, the evolved and … Continue reading Intelligence

Avoiding Complex Decisions & Maintaining Agency

Avoiding Complex Decisions & Maintaining Agency

Two central ideas to the book Nudge by Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler are that people don't like to make complex decisions and that people like to have agency. Unfortunately, these two ideas conflict with each other. If people don't like to make complex decisions, then we should assume that they would like to have … Continue reading Avoiding Complex Decisions & Maintaining Agency

Imagining Success Versus Anticipating Failure

Imagining Success Versus Anticipating Failure

I am guilty of not spending enough time planning what to do when things don't work out the way I want. I have written in the past about the importance of planning for failure and adversity, but like many others, I find it hard to do and hard to get myself to sit down and … Continue reading Imagining Success Versus Anticipating Failure

Subjective Gains and Losses

Subjective Gains and Losses

"Outcomes that are better than the reference points are gains. Below the reference point they are losses."   Daniel Kahneman writes extensively about our subjective experiences of the world in his book Thinking Fast and Slow and about how those subjective experiences can have very serious consequences in our decisions, political stances, and beliefs about … Continue reading Subjective Gains and Losses

Understanding the Past

Understanding the Past

I am always fascinated by the idea, that continually demonstrates validity in my own life, that the more we learn about something, the more realize how little we actually know about it. I am currently reading Yuval Noah Harari's book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, and I am continually struck by how often Harari … Continue reading Understanding the Past

Ignore Our Ignorance

Ignore Our Ignorance

There is a quote that is attributed to Harry Truman along the lines of, "give me a one-handed economist." The quote references the frustrations that any key decision-maker might have when faced with challenging and sometimes conflicting information and choices. On the one hand is a decision with a predicted set of outcomes, but on … Continue reading Ignore Our Ignorance