Missing Feedback

Missing Feedback

I generally think we are overconfident in our opinions. We should all be more skeptical that we are right, that we have made the best possible decisions, and that we truly understand how the world operates. Our worldviews can only be informed by our experiences and by the information we take in about events, phenomena, … Continue reading Missing Feedback

Discount Confidence

Discount Confidence

You should probably discount confidence, even your own, when it comes to the certainty of a given outcome or event. I previously wrote about confidence stemming from the logical coherence of the story we are able to tell ourselves. I have also written about how logical coherence of personal narratives is easier when we lack … Continue reading Discount Confidence

A Large Collection of Miniskills

A Large Collection of Miniskills

I  really like the way that Daniel Kahneman describes expertise in his book Thinking Fast and Slow. His description is incredibly meaningful today, in a world where so many of us work in offices and perform knowledge world. Expertise is important, but it is a bit nebulous when you think about knowledge work expertise compared … Continue reading A Large Collection of Miniskills

Should You Be So Confident?

Should You Be So Confident?

Are you pretty confident that your diet is a healthy option for your? Are you confident in the outcome of your upcoming job interview? And how confident are you that you will have enough saved for retirement? Whatever your level of confidence, you might want to reconsider whether you should be as confident as you … Continue reading Should You Be So Confident?

Understanding the Past

Understanding the Past

I am always fascinated by the idea, that continually demonstrates validity in my own life, that the more we learn about something, the more realize how little we actually know about it. I am currently reading Yuval Noah Harari's book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, and I am continually struck by how often Harari … Continue reading Understanding the Past

Substitution Heuristics

Substitution Heuristics

I think heuristics are underrated. We should discuss heuristics as a society way more than we do. We barely acknowledge heuristics, but if we look closely, they are at the heart of many of our decisions, beliefs, and assumptions. They save us a lot of work and help us move through the world pretty smoothly, … Continue reading Substitution Heuristics

Steel, Coffee Beans, and Healthcare

Steel, Coffee Beans, & Healthcare

"GM spends more on health care than steel, just as starbucks spends more on health care than coffee beans." Dave Chase writes in his book The Opioid Crisis Wake-Up Call. "For most companies, health care is the second largest expense after payroll. This puts you in the health care business."   It is incredible to … Continue reading Steel, Coffee Beans, & Healthcare

The First Value of Deep Work

The First Value of Deep Work

"Deep work is not some nostalgic affectation of writers and early-twentieth-century Philosophers," writes Cal Newport in his book Deep Work. "It's instead a skill that has great value today."   A tension that I think a lot of us face (I know its true for me) is that we are pulled in two different directions … Continue reading The First Value of Deep Work