I generally think we are overconfident in our opinions. We should all be more skeptical that we are right, that we have made the best possible decisions, and that we truly understand how the world operates. Our worldviews can only be informed by our experiences and by the information we take in about events, phenomena, … Continue reading Missing Feedback
Tag: Knowledge
Discount Confidence
You should probably discount confidence, even your own, when it comes to the certainty of a given outcome or event. I previously wrote about confidence stemming from the logical coherence of the story we are able to tell ourselves. I have also written about how logical coherence of personal narratives is easier when we lack … Continue reading Discount Confidence
A Large Collection of Miniskills
I really like the way that Daniel Kahneman describes expertise in his book Thinking Fast and Slow. His description is incredibly meaningful today, in a world where so many of us work in offices and perform knowledge world. Expertise is important, but it is a bit nebulous when you think about knowledge work expertise compared … Continue reading A Large Collection of Miniskills
Should You Be So Confident?
Are you pretty confident that your diet is a healthy option for your? Are you confident in the outcome of your upcoming job interview? And how confident are you that you will have enough saved for retirement? Whatever your level of confidence, you might want to reconsider whether you should be as confident as you … Continue reading Should You Be So Confident?
Understanding the Past
I am always fascinated by the idea, that continually demonstrates validity in my own life, that the more we learn about something, the more realize how little we actually know about it. I am currently reading Yuval Noah Harari's book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, and I am continually struck by how often Harari … Continue reading Understanding the Past
Substitution Heuristics
I think heuristics are underrated. We should discuss heuristics as a society way more than we do. We barely acknowledge heuristics, but if we look closely, they are at the heart of many of our decisions, beliefs, and assumptions. They save us a lot of work and help us move through the world pretty smoothly, … Continue reading Substitution Heuristics
Narrative Confidence
We like to believe that having more information will make us more confident in our decisions and opinions. The opposite, however, may be true. I have written in the past about a jam study, where participants who selected jam from a sample of a few jams were more happy with their choice than participants who … Continue reading Narrative Confidence
Seneca on Quotes
In Letters From a Stoic, Seneca writes, "give over hoping that you can skim, by means of epitomes, the wisdom of distinguished men. Look into their wisdom as a whole; study it as a whole. They are working out a plan and weaving together, line upon line, a masterpiece, from which nothing can be taken … Continue reading Seneca on Quotes
Steel, Coffee Beans, & Healthcare
"GM spends more on health care than steel, just as starbucks spends more on health care than coffee beans." Dave Chase writes in his book The Opioid Crisis Wake-Up Call. "For most companies, health care is the second largest expense after payroll. This puts you in the health care business." It is incredible to … Continue reading Steel, Coffee Beans, & Healthcare
The First Value of Deep Work
"Deep work is not some nostalgic affectation of writers and early-twentieth-century Philosophers," writes Cal Newport in his book Deep Work. "It's instead a skill that has great value today." A tension that I think a lot of us face (I know its true for me) is that we are pulled in two different directions … Continue reading The First Value of Deep Work