Hindsight Bias and Accountability - Joe Abittan

Hindsight Bias and Accountability

"Increased accountability is a mixed blessing," writes Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking Fast and Slow. This is an idea I came across in the past from books like Political Realism by Jonathan Rauch and The New Localism by Bruce Katz and  Jeremy Nowak. Our go-to answer to any challenges and problems tends to be … Continue reading Hindsight Bias and Accountability

Hindsight Bias and Misleading Headlines

Hindsight Bias and Misleading Headlines

I absolutely hate internet ads that have headlines along the lines of "Analyst Who Predicted Stock Market Crash Says Makes New Prediction." These headlines are always nothing but clickbait, and reading Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking Fast and Slow has given me even more reason to hate these types of headlines. They play on cognitive errors … Continue reading Hindsight Bias and Misleading Headlines

Narratives and Halos

Narratives and Halos

Yesterday I wrote about narrative fallacies and how our brains' desires to create coherent stories can lead to cognitive errors. One error, which I wrote about previously, is the halo effect, and in some ways it is a direct consequence of narrative thinking. Our brains don't do well with conflicting information that doesn't fit a … Continue reading Narratives and Halos

Narrative Fallacies #NarrativePolicyFramework

Narrative Fallacies

With perhaps the exception of professional accountants and actuaries, we think in narratives. How we understand important aspects of our lives, such as who we are, the opportunities we have had in life, the decisions we have made, and how our society works is shaped by the narratives we create in our minds. We use … Continue reading Narrative Fallacies

Intensity Matching and Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

"Intuitive predictions are almost completely insensitive to the actual predictive quality of the evidence," writes Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow. A lot of our thinking takes place in the part of our brain which is good at making quick connections, quickly detecting patterns, and making fast judgments. The deeper and more thoughtful part … Continue reading Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

Fluency of Ideas

Fluency of Ideas

Our experiences and narratives are extremely important to consider when we make judgments about the world, however we rarely think deeply about the reasons why we hold the beliefs we do. We rarely pause to consider whether our opinions are biased, whether our limited set of experiences shape the narratives that play in our mind, … Continue reading Fluency of Ideas

A Condescending Impulse

A Condescending Impulse

In my last few posts I have written about Johann Hari's research into Harry Anslinger, the nation's first Commissioner for the Federal Bureau of Narcotics, and what Hari learned about Anslinger and the start of the nation's war on drugs. Anslinger held deeply racist views which he channeled into propaganda and drug policy in the … Continue reading A Condescending Impulse