Paternalistic Nudges - Joe Abittan

Paternalistic Nudges

In their book Nudge, Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler argue in favor of libertarian paternalism. Their argument is that our world is complex and interconnected, and it is impossible for people to truly make decisions on their own. Not only is it impossible for people to simply make their own decisions, it is impossible for … Continue reading Paternalistic Nudges

Can We Avoid Cognitive Errors?

Can We Avoid Cognitive Errors?

Daniel Kahneman is not very hopeful when it comes to our ability to avoid cognitive errors. Toward the end of his book Thinking Fast and Slow, a book all about cognitive errors, predictable biases, and situations in which we can recognize such biases and thinking errors, Kahneman isn't so sure there is much we can … Continue reading Can We Avoid Cognitive Errors?

The Remembering Self and Time - Joe Abittan

The Remembering Self and Time

Time, as we have known it, has only been with human beings for a small slice of human history. The story of time zones is fascinating, and really began once rail roads connected the United States. Before we had a standardized system for operating within time, human lives were ruled by the cycle of the … Continue reading The Remembering Self and Time

The Focusing Illusion Continued

The Focusing Illusion Continued

I find the focusing illusion as described by Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking Fast and Slow to be fascinating because it reveals how strange our actual thinking is. I am constantly baffled by the way that our brains continuously and predictably makes mistakes. The way we think about, interpret, and understand the world is … Continue reading The Focusing Illusion Continued

Denominator Neglect - Joe Abittan

Denominator Neglect

"The idea of denominator neglect helps explain why different ways of communicating risks vary so much in their effects," writes Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow.   One thing we have seen in 2020 is how difficult it is to communicate and understand risk. Thinking about risk requires thinking statistically, and thinking statistically doesn't … Continue reading Denominator Neglect

Hindsight Bias and Misleading Headlines

Hindsight Bias and Misleading Headlines

I absolutely hate internet ads that have headlines along the lines of "Analyst Who Predicted Stock Market Crash Says Makes New Prediction." These headlines are always nothing but clickbait, and reading Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking Fast and Slow has given me even more reason to hate these types of headlines. They play on cognitive errors … Continue reading Hindsight Bias and Misleading Headlines

Narratives and Halos

Narratives and Halos

Yesterday I wrote about narrative fallacies and how our brains' desires to create coherent stories can lead to cognitive errors. One error, which I wrote about previously, is the halo effect, and in some ways it is a direct consequence of narrative thinking. Our brains don't do well with conflicting information that doesn't fit a … Continue reading Narratives and Halos

Narrative Fallacies #NarrativePolicyFramework

Narrative Fallacies

With perhaps the exception of professional accountants and actuaries, we think in narratives. How we understand important aspects of our lives, such as who we are, the opportunities we have had in life, the decisions we have made, and how our society works is shaped by the narratives we create in our minds. We use … Continue reading Narrative Fallacies

How We Chose to Measure Risk

How We Chose to Measure Risk

Risk is a tricky thing to think about, and how we chose to measure and communicate risk can make it even more challenging to comprehend. Our brains like to categorize things, and categorization is easiest when the categories are binary or represent three or fewer distinct possibilities. Once you start adding options and different possible … Continue reading How We Chose to Measure Risk