To be innovative is to make decisions, develop processes, and create things in new ways that improve over the status quo. Being innovative is necessarily different, and requires stepping away from the proven path to do something new or unusual. Risk and innovation are tied together because you cannot venture into something new or stray … Continue reading Risk and Innovation
In the book Risk Savvy, Gerd Gigerenzer explains the challenges we have with thinking statistically and how these difficulties can lead to poor decision-making. Humans have trouble holding lots of complex and conflicting information. We don't do well with decisions involving risk and decisions where we cannot possibly know all the relevant information necessary for … Continue reading A Mixture of Risks
In Risk Savvy Gerd Gigerenzer makes a distinction between known risks and uncertainty. In a foot note for a figure, he writes, "In everyday language, we make a distinction between certainty and risk, but the terms risk and uncertainty are used mostly as synonyms. They aren't. In a world of known risks, everything, including the … Continue reading Navigating Uncertainty with Nudges
In their book Nudge, Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler argue in favor of libertarian paternalism. Their argument is that our world is complex and interconnected, and it is impossible for people to truly make decisions on their own. Not only is it impossible for people to simply make their own decisions, it is impossible for … Continue reading Paternalistic Nudges
My wife works with families with children with disabilities and for several years I worked in the healthcare space. A common idea between our two worlds was that the people being assisted are the experts on their own lives, and they know what is best for them. Parents are the experts for their children and … Continue reading Do People Make the Best Choices?
Daniel Kahneman is not very hopeful when it comes to our ability to avoid cognitive errors. Toward the end of his book Thinking Fast and Slow, a book all about cognitive errors, predictable biases, and situations in which we can recognize such biases and thinking errors, Kahneman isn't so sure there is much we can … Continue reading Can We Avoid Cognitive Errors?
I really like the idea of heuristics. I have always thought of heuristics as short-cuts for problem solving or rules of thumb to apply to given situations to ease cognitive demand. We live in an incredibly complex world and the nature of reality cannot be deduced just by observing the world around us. For the … Continue reading Quick Heuristics
The world is a complex place and people have to make a lot of decisions within that complexity. Whether we are deliberate about it or not, we create and manage systems and structures for navigating the complexity and framing the decisions we make. However, each of us operate from different perspectives. We make decisions that … Continue reading Should We Assume Rationality?
In Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman writes, "The rules that govern the evaluation of the past are poor guides for decision making, because time does matter. The central fact of our existence is that time is the ultimate finite resource, but the remembering self ignores that reality. The neglect of duration combined with the … Continue reading Biased Toward Periods of Short, Intense Joy
Time, as we have known it, has only been with human beings for a small slice of human history. The story of time zones is fascinating, and really began once rail roads connected the United States. Before we had a standardized system for operating within time, human lives were ruled by the cycle of the … Continue reading The Remembering Self and Time