A Leader's Toolbox

A Leader’s Toolbox

In the book Risk Savvy Gerd Gigerenzer describes the work of top executives within companies as being inherently intuitive. Executives and managers within high performing companies are constantly pressed for time. There are more decisions, more incoming items that need attention, and more things to work on than any executive or manager can adequately handle … Continue reading A Leader’s Toolbox

Gut Decisions

Gut Decisions

"Although about half of professional decisions in large companies are gut decisions, it would probably not go over well if a manager publicly admitted, I had a hunch. In our society, intuition is suspicious. For that reason, managers typically hide their intuitions or have even stopped listening to them," Gerd Gigerenzer writes in Risk Savvy. … Continue reading Gut Decisions

Unconscious Rules of Thumb

Unconscious Rules of Thumb

Some of the decisions that I make are based on thorough calculations, analysis, evaluation of available options, and deliberate considerations of costs and benefits. When I am planning my workout routine, I think hard about how my legs have been feeling and what distance, elevation, and pace is reasonable for my upcoming workouts. I think … Continue reading Unconscious Rules of Thumb

Intensity Matching and Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

"Intuitive predictions are almost completely insensitive to the actual predictive quality of the evidence," writes Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow. A lot of our thinking takes place in the part of our brain which is good at making quick connections, quickly detecting patterns, and making fast judgments. The deeper and more thoughtful part … Continue reading Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

The Availability Heuristic

The Science of Availability

Which presidential candidate is doing more advertising this year? Which college football team has been the most dominant over the last five years? Who has had the most songs on the Hot 100 over the last five years? You can probably come up with an intuitive answer to (at least one of) these questions even … Continue reading The Science of Availability

Rarely Stumped

Rarely Stumped

Daniel Kahneman starts one of the chapters in his book Thinking Fast and Slow by writing, "A remarkable aspect of your mental life is that you are rarely stumped. True, you occasionally face a question such as 17 × 24 = ? to which no answer comes immediately to mind, but these dumbfounded moments are … Continue reading Rarely Stumped

Seeing Causality

Seeing Causality

In Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman describes how a Belgian psychologist changed the way that we understand our thinking in regard to causality. The traditional thinking held that we make observations about the world and come to understand causality through repeated exposure to phenomenological events. As Kahneman writes, "[Albert] Michotte [1945] had a different … Continue reading Seeing Causality

Guided by Impressions of System 1

Guided by Impressions of System 1

In Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman shares research showing how easily people can be tricked or influenced by factors that seem to be completely irrelevant to the mental task that the people are asked to carry out. People will remember rhyming proverbs better than non-rhyming proverbs. People will trust a cited research source with … Continue reading Guided by Impressions of System 1