Sharing what I have learned from what I have read: A blog by Joe Abittan
With the start of the new year and the inauguration of a new president of the United States, many individuals and organizations are turning their eyes toward the future. Individuals are working on resolutions to make positive changes in their lives. Companies are making plans and strategy adjustments to fit with economic and regulatory predictions. … Continue reading Inventing Excuses
"In many domains people are tempted to think, after the fact, that an outcome was entirely predictable, and that the success of a musician, an actor, an author, or a politician was inevitable in light of his or her skills and characteristics. Beware of that temptation. Small interventions and even coincidences, at a key stage, … Continue reading Predictable Outcomes
Taking the outside view is a shorthand and colloquial way to say, think of the base rate of the reference class to which something belongs, and make judgements and predictions from that starting point. Take the outside view is advice from Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking Fast and Slow for anyone working on a … Continue reading Take the Outside View
I am always fascinated by the idea, that continually demonstrates validity in my own life, that the more we learn about something, the more realize how little we actually know about it. I am currently reading Yuval Noah Harari's book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, and I am continually struck by how often Harari … Continue reading Understanding the Past
"Intuitive predictions are almost completely insensitive to the actual predictive quality of the evidence," writes Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow. A lot of our thinking takes place in the part of our brain which is good at making quick connections, quickly detecting patterns, and making fast judgments. The deeper and more thoughtful part … Continue reading Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching
For much of our waking life we operate on System 1, or we at least allow System 1 to be in control of many of our actions, thoughts, and reactions to the world around us. We don't normally have to think very hard about our commute to work, we can practically walk through the house … Continue reading A Capacity for Surprise
"If you can be sure of being right only 55 percent of the time," writes Dale Carnegie in the book How to Win Friends and Influence People, "you can go down to Wall Street and make a million dollars a day. If you can't be sure of being right even 55 percent of the time, … Continue reading We Might Be Wrong
In Letters From a Stoic Seneca writes, "There are more things ... likely to frighten us than there are to crush us; we suffer more often in imagination than in reality." Our minds work really hard to keep us safe, keep us in important positions, and keep us connected so that we can succeed and … Continue reading Be Calm Ahead of Your Obstacle
In his book Becoming Who We Need To Be, author Colin Wright explains how training in certain areas changes us. "Training our instincts is like feeding our subconscious. It grants us more informed, helpful knee-jerk reactions, rather than blind and potentially damaging impulses." For examples, Wright writes about the ways that experienced auto mechanics are … Continue reading Training Our Instincts