Inventing Excuses - Joe Abittan

Inventing Excuses

With the start of the new year and the inauguration of a new president of the United States, many individuals and organizations are turning their eyes toward the future. Individuals are working on resolutions to make positive changes in their lives. Companies are making plans and strategy adjustments to fit with economic and regulatory predictions. … Continue reading Inventing Excuses

Predictable Outcomes

Predictable Outcomes

"In many domains people are tempted to think, after the fact, that an outcome was entirely predictable, and that the success of a musician, an actor, an author, or a politician was inevitable in light of his or her skills and characteristics. Beware of that temptation. Small interventions and even coincidences, at a key stage, … Continue reading Predictable Outcomes

Take the Outside View

Take the Outside View

Taking the outside view is a shorthand and colloquial way to say, think of the base rate of the reference class to which something belongs, and make judgements and predictions from that starting point. Take the outside view is advice from Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking Fast and Slow for anyone working on a … Continue reading Take the Outside View

Understanding the Past

Understanding the Past

I am always fascinated by the idea, that continually demonstrates validity in my own life, that the more we learn about something, the more realize how little we actually know about it. I am currently reading Yuval Noah Harari's book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, and I am continually struck by how often Harari … Continue reading Understanding the Past

Intensity Matching and Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

"Intuitive predictions are almost completely insensitive to the actual predictive quality of the evidence," writes Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow. A lot of our thinking takes place in the part of our brain which is good at making quick connections, quickly detecting patterns, and making fast judgments. The deeper and more thoughtful part … Continue reading Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

Be Calm Ahead of Your Obstacle

In Letters From a Stoic Seneca writes, "There are more things ... likely to frighten us than there are to crush us; we suffer more often in imagination than in reality." Our minds work really hard to keep us safe, keep us in important positions, and keep us connected so that we can succeed and … Continue reading Be Calm Ahead of Your Obstacle

Training Our Instincts

In his book Becoming Who We Need To Be, author Colin Wright explains how training in certain areas changes us. "Training our instincts is like feeding our subconscious. It grants us more informed, helpful knee-jerk reactions, rather than blind and potentially damaging impulses." For examples, Wright writes about the ways that experienced auto mechanics are … Continue reading Training Our Instincts