Intensity Matching and Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

"Intuitive predictions are almost completely insensitive to the actual predictive quality of the evidence," writes Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow. A lot of our thinking takes place in the part of our brain which is good at making quick connections, quickly detecting patterns, and making fast judgments. The deeper and more thoughtful part … Continue reading Intuitive Predictions and Intensity Matching

Statistical Artifacts

Statistical Artifacts

When we have good graphs and statistical aids, thinking statistically can feel straightforward and intuitive. Clear charts can help us tell a story, can help us visualize trends and relationships, and can help us better conceptualize risk and probability. However, understanding data is hard, especially if the way that data is collected creates statistical artifacts. … Continue reading Statistical Artifacts

Motivated Reasoning – Arguments to Continue Believing As We Already Do

Recently I have been thinking a lot about the way we think. To each of us, it feels as though our thinking and our thought process is logical, that our assumptions about the world are sound and built on good evidence, and that we might have a few complex technical facts wrong, but our judgments … Continue reading Motivated Reasoning – Arguments to Continue Believing As We Already Do

Recognizing Our Own Shortcomings

Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius wrote about the importance of turning inward and honestly judging our own character in a way that is intimate and helped us move our lives forward in a constructive manner.  Throughout his book Meditations he wrote of the importance of being self-aware, and provided notes about being socially responsible by becoming more intentional … Continue reading Recognizing Our Own Shortcomings