Post Hoc Conclusions

Post Hoc Conclusions

Our minds see a lot of patterns that don't exist. We make observations of randomness and find patterns that we assume to be based on a causal link when in reality no causal structure exists between our observations. This can happen in 3 point shooting in basketball, in observations of bomb locations in WWII London, … Continue reading Post Hoc Conclusions

Accepting Unsound Arguments

Accepting Unsound Arguments

Motivated reasoning is a major problem for those of us who want to have beliefs that accurately reflect the world. To live is to have preferences about how the world operates and relates to our lives. We would prefer not to endure suffering and pain, and would rather have comfort, companionship, and prosperity. We would … Continue reading Accepting Unsound Arguments

Detecting Simple Relationships

Detecting Simple Relationships

System 1, in Daniel Kahneman's picture of the mind, is the part of our brain that is always on. It is the automatic part of our brain that detects simple relationships in the world, makes quick assumptions and associations, and reacts to the world before we are even consciously aware of anything. It is contrasted … Continue reading Detecting Simple Relationships